I told
myself I would never write about Palestine and Israel again. It's futile.
It's useless. The conflict is unsolvable as long as two people claim
the same piece of land, unwilling to share it. 64 years since the
creation of Israel, 64 years since Naqba and no end in sight in a
conflict that has been with me for all my life.
But then Pillar of
Defense started, the Israeli operation against Hamas, against the
al-Aqsa Brigades, against the people of Gaza. And here I am writing
about Israel and Palestine again. Just like many other journalists,
analysts and bloggers around the world. Media live on war and die on
peace.
When
Israel was founded, when the struggle for Palestine began, it was a
matter of geopolitics. Israel and Palestine occupied the same
strategic point that the Romans had to have, that in Cold War times
the United States and the Soviet Union craved to control: the eastern
edge of the Mediterranean Sea. The Americans were with Israel, the
Soviets had a hold on Syria and Egypt. If Israel were to fall, the
Soviets would dominate the entire eastern Mediterranean, a thought
unbearable for the forces against communism.
But being anti-Israel
didn't mean being pro-Palestine. The project of a Palestinian state
was met with great suspicion by its Arab neighbors, for different
reasons. Syria had always been uncomfortable with the concept of
Palestinian statehood and actually invaded Lebanon in the 1970s to
destroy the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and Fatah. The
Jordanians, who could have granted Palestine its independence between
1948 and 1967, remained very fearful that the Hashemite monarchy
could collapse under the weight of a Palestinian state nearby. And
the Egyptians never saw the region as a distinct state, but as an
extension of Egypt.
vicious cycle: Israel at war
With the
end of the Cold War, the U.S. lost their only challenger to world
leadership. The geopolitical importance of the eastern Mediterranean
fell dramatically. The current round of violent conflict only matters
to the Palestinians and the Israelis, but not to the world. With all
diplomatic efforts to improve the fate of the Palestinians stalled,
the world would forget about Palestine if not for rockets fired into
Israel from Gaza from time to time. The awareness that there is Palestine and the
Palestinians lives on war and dies on peace.
Hamas
was quite happy with the situation before Pillar of Defense, with the
fact that Gaza has been blocked off from the rest of the globe. It allowed
them to make tons of money from goods smuggled through the many
tunnels connecting Gaza with Egypt. If the border barriers are lifted,
their income will drop. Hamas had never welcomed the efforts of
activists worldwide to break the blockade of Gaza through actions
under the "Flotilla“ brand. These actions threatened the group's
undisputed hold on Gaza. Does Hamas really care about the United
States of Palestine? Hamas is the King of Gaza and they want to keep
it this way, rather than becoming a prince among others in Palestine.
Lately, new players have sprung up in Gaza, as Rami Khoury writes in
Lebanon's The Daily Star: "a steady expansion of militant Islamists,
such as Islamic Jihad and other groups, who make Hamas look like a
relative softie". To remain relevant as a resistance movement, to
overcome the fattening complacency that has beset them, Hamas had to up the game, needed to shoot rockets direction Israel. Never
mind the destruction that Israel will bring upon Gaza in retaliation.
For Hamas, the calculation is simple, now that Qatar has pledged to
pay for reconstruction in Gaza: more destruction, more reconstruction,
more money from Qatar, more skimming off by Hamas officials. Hamas'
survival – politically, economically – lives on war and dies on
peace.
I'd be
worried if I were Israel. Despite 786 war planes, 3000 tanks and a
possible 176'500 Israelis on acitve duty (numbers according to a CNN
count), Israel doesn't feel safe. Since 2006 and the Lebanon Summer War, Israel has a loser's number on her shirt. (Disclosure: I was in
Lebanon in July of 2006 and had to be evacuated by my embassy to
Damascus. Syria was a safe haven then.)
Forces in Gaza now have
greatly advanced weaponry at their disposal, the Fajr-5 rockets,
developed in Iran, assembled in Gaza. These rockets can reach Tel
Aviv and Jerusalem, a clear strategic game-changer. If dull Hamas can
deploy these projectiles, one has to wonder to what level clever
Hezbollah has developed its arsenal since 2006. On Israel's northeastern front, the Golan, the Assads of Syria have positioned
themselves as stalwart guardians of Arab resistance against Israel. A
ridiculous claim that has only served to legitimize the Assads' power
grip: the last shot fired from Syria into Israel dates from 1973
(except some border crossing stray bullets two weeks ago). But now
Assad, "the devil we know“, will soon be replaced in Damascus by
a devil "we don't know". In Jerusalem, they are writing Bashar's
farewell homage these days.
advanced weaponry: Fajr-5 rocket
Israeli
officials like to call working their security environment „cutting
the grass“: a task that must be performed regularly and has no end.
Only now the grass being watered by different developments in the region is growing faster than Israel's lawn mowers are able to cut it. But
what are the alternatives to „cutting the grass“? Israeli
politicians have shut the door on a two-state solution, and a
one-state solution will mean the end of the Greater Israel it was
dreamed of. Strategically cornered, lacking options, Israel is stuck
in a vicious cycle of violence, deterrence and retaliation. The idea
of „Israel“ lives on war and would die on peace.
64 years
since the creation of Israel, 64 years since Naqba and no end in
sight. Too many lives have been lost, too many minds have been
corrupted. How do you deal with a parent who beats his stubborn child
and then locks it up in a closet, hoping it will calm down over
time?
As in all conflicts, the main key to a solution lies with the
stronger party, Israel. Only Israelis have the power to decisively
alter the course of events.
Unfortunately, the Israeli society is not
ready for this. It is a society glued together by a narrative of
being an eternal victim of history, callous towards the suffering of
others, a society addicted to living with demons. A diplomat I recently spoke to quoted
the late Hafez al-Assad as saying "if you want to destroy Israel,
offer her peace". This still holds true today. Israel is a society in
danger of imploding should peace knock at the door.
„A
serious Mideast peace effort starts with no more rockets fired into
Israeli territory“, U.S. president Obama said last Sunday. The
psychotherapist starts with treating the resisting child, not the
abusing father. Israelis, Palestinians: you may prepare for another
64 years of living in war and dying in war.
This post was first published at Your Middle East, here.
